I’m going to do something I don’t usually do, which is endeavor to keep this post sort and sweet. There has been a lot of rumbling out of North Korea in recent weeks and a lot of blustering from Washington, D.C., but what does it really all mean? Can North Korea really hit the contiguous United States with a missile? Why has D.C. been blustering extra hard only to apparently blink? What is the real threat of war with North Korea?
There has been a lot of conjecture regarding whether or not North Korea could hit the mainland US with a missile armed with a nuclear weapon, or perhaps something as “mundane” as a chemical weapon, and most of the speculation seems to focus on whether or not their long-range missiles could make it. For weeks the speculation has been on the possibility that North Korea could successfully mount a nuke on a missile, and Washington has been issuing statements doubting whether or not they could. And yet, two days ago it was announced that North Korea did have the means of mounting a nuclear warhead on a missile! So I am going to concur with the defense intelligence specialists who say that they could. Besides, if it was so certain that North Korea was unable to mount a nuke on a long-range missile then why all of the concern about them hitting us with an EMP burst over the western US? All things considered, I would say that North Korea can and has mounted nukes on some of its missiles and that the nuclear threat to South Korea, Japan, Guam and even the western United States is very real.
Why has Washington made such a big show of blustering at North Korea? I think that first it has been, as they say, to reassure our Asian allies that we mean to stand by our commitments to defend them, but our rhetoric and actions have exceeded the usual response. Now perhaps this has been in answer to North Korea exceeding their past bombastic statements, but I think that it has as much to do with covering Washington’s butt as with anything. I also think that in part it was sending the message to China that we were taking the North Korean threats of attack very seriously so that China would try to rein in their belligerent ally. Yet, we have blinked. America has cancelled a ballistic missile test in California in an effort to avoid provoking North Korea, and we have very publicly announced that the very squadrons of Air Force jets that we would need in a Korean conflict are standing down due budget cuts. These moves only send the message to Kim Jong-Un that we are weaker than he thinks and that he can continue to set the pace in this dance of death. I believe that the White House is doing it’s best to not let this good crisis go to waste since it makes a great distraction from the domestic issues that Obama is trying to ram through.
So is the threat of war with North Korea real? Yes, it is. Kim has painted himself into a corner from which he can do nothing but make good on his threats or he faces being discredited in the eyes of his own people. After more than 60 years of rule by the Kim dynasty North Korea has become the paranoid schizophrenic of east Asia, and I believe that he truly believes we are out to get him. With tensions as high as they are, all he has to do is launch a missile – even just a test – and someone will shoot it down. Then, as they say, it will be on. The missiles are ready and the threat is real, and it will just take one miscalculation on either side for war to erupt. History is rife with miscalculations starting wars, and another is about to be added to the list. The only thing to be determined is how long it will last and how destructive it will be…
Peace and blessings to you all, my friends…while we can enjoy them.